Evaluating the extent to which precipitation in Belize is changing and the potential effects on rainforest biota
Joshua Dovey
Co-Presenters: Individual Presentation
College: The Dorothy and George Hennings College of Science, Mathematics and Technology
Major: Enviornmental Sciences
Faculty Research Mentor: Daniela Shebitz
Abstract:
Scientific research and public concern about climate change are often associated with the effects of warming temperatures, but in biomes such as the tropical rainforest, changes in precipitation that result from anthropogenic climate change can have devastating effects on biodiversity. Approximately 40% of Belize (in the southern half) is covered in rainforest, which provides habitat for many species of plants and animals, and plays essential roles in regulating temperature and sequestering carbon. Many of these species are specialists, having small niches that have developed over millennia. Whereas the rainforests in the southern half of the country receives 4500mm of rain annually, whereas the drier habitats in the north receive 1300mm of rain annually. During a Travel Learn course to Belize over the 2024-2025 winter break, members of the Blue Creek Mayan Community explained that this season, the wet season extended longer than it has in the past and that changes in precipitation patterns over the past decade seem to be more unpredictable than they were historically, having just experienced a five-year drought. Without human influence on climate, tropical rainforests, by their nature, would have little temperature variation annually and experience wet and dry seasons driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These seasonal shifts are crucial for local communities, as the wet season is vital for agriculture needs, and for the plants and animals that inhabit the ecoregion. The ITCZ is typically over the northern hemisphere May-October. Throughout the years, the amount of rainfall during the wet season in Belize has been less abundant and other areas are projected to receive above-average rainfall. The purpose of this paper is to study the precipitation changes based on the projection of climate change in Belize and other Central American countries. A literature review was conducted predominantly using Google Scholar to research 1) What are observed changes in climate over Central America? 2) What do climate models project for changes in precipitation patterns for Belize? and 3) Is there existing research that documents the effects of changing precipitation on rainforest biota in Belize?