Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wetlands: Analyzing the Effects of Temperature and Rainfall Change in New Jersey
Phil Ho Combatir
Co-Presenters: Individual Presentation
College: The Dorothy and George Hennings College of Science, Mathematics and Technology
Major: Computer Science
Faculty Research Mentor: Sharmistha Das Iyer
Abstract:
This study investigated the influences of elevating temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on wetlands in New Jersey, focusing on how these changes related to water levels, species diversity, and the ability of wetlands to provide essential ecosystem services such as water filtration and flood mitigation. Through a quantitative approach, past climate data was collected from a trusted database called NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and used to simulate predictions with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results collected from 2010 to 2020 showed strong relationships between rising temperatures, declining water levels, and a steady loss of species diversity. Changes in precipitation patterns significantly influenced water levels but showed little correlation with biodiversity, suggesting other stressors such as habitat degradation and human activity. Predictive simulations for 2025–2030 revealed drastic declines in precipitation and water levels, along with a continuing downward trend in biodiversity, highlighting the vulnerability of wetlands to the impacts of climate change. These findings emphasized the imperative need for adaptation and conservation efforts, such as improved water management and habitat restoration, to mitigate the effects of decreasing rainfall. Recommendations for future research include integrating more localized data inputs into SWAT simulations and implementing policies that enhance the resilience of wetlands against environmental stressors. By identifying key trends and simulating future changes, this research provided insights that can inform practical efforts to preserve the critical ecosystem services offered by New Jersey’s wetlands amid ongoing climate change.