Trade Barriers & Global Food Security: The Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural Markets and Prices
Judith Mejias-collado
Co-Presenters: Individual Presentation
College: College of Business and Public Management
Major: Accounting
Faculty Research Mentor: Huaibing Yu
Abstract:
Title: The Impact of Trade Barriers on Agricultural Prices and Global Food SecurityAuthor: Judith Mejias-Collado, Department of Economics, Kean UniversityAbstract:Trade barriers, particularly tariffs, have increasingly influenced global agricultural markets, affecting not only the prices of essential commodities but also the stability of food systems and investment patterns. This research explores how tariff-related trade disruptions, notably during the 2018–2020 U.S.-China trade conflict, impacted commodity prices and contributed to global food insecurity.Using price data from 2016 to 2022 sourced from international economic databases, the study analyzes the trends in wheat, corn, and rice prices across this period. A quantitative simulation was employed to model the effect of a 20% tariff with a 75% pass-through rate, estimating the impact on consumer prices. The analysis revealed significant price increases: wheat rose by approximately 169%, corn by 134%, and rice by 41%. These surges align with the timing of heightened trade restrictions and were further intensified by concurrent global supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.Market volatility assessments showed wheat and corn experienced the most fluctuation, indicating sensitivity to global policy shifts. In contrast, rice remained relatively stable, suggesting varying resilience among staple crops. Simulated results projected a 15% rise in consumer prices due to tariff effects, consistent with observed trends in food inflation indices.Beyond immediate price effects, tariffs were found to influence investment direction—favoring domestic agricultural sectors while reducing overall market efficiency and diversity. This inward shift may offer short-term gains for local producers but undermines long-term innovation and global supply resilience.The findings underscore the importance of adopting balanced trade policies that mitigate consumer cost burdens while promoting sustainable agricultural investment. Strategies such as fostering regional trade agreements, investing in local production capacity, and utilizing financial instruments like crop insurance can help stabilize food systems. By integrating domestic resilience planning with international trade cooperation, policymakers can work toward a more equitable and secure global food supply.Keywords: Trade Barriers, Food Security, Agricultural Policy, Tariffs, Market Volatility