On Environmental Characteristics as a Factor in Modeling California Wildfire Smoke Diffusion

Keith Lawrence Corpuz

Co-Presenters: Individual Presentation

College: Hennings College of Science Mathematics and Technology

Major: BA.MATHSCI

Faculty Research Mentor: Zhixiong Chen, Valarie Yi Ding

Abstract:

Smoke inhalation is a leading cause of mortality in wildfires. An adequate window of time to evacuate and return ensures that adverse cardiopulmonary health effects among affected residents are minimized. In this project, two California wildfires during the COVID-19 pandemic are compared to determine the extent to which environmental characteristics affect the diffusion of wildfire smoke. The spread of smoke concentration in the region of the fires is modeled using a diffusion-advection-decay equation, with existing particulate matter considered as a source. The coefficients for the model are derived from Boltzmann calculations, wind speeds, and half-life. The resulting solution curves and numerical data are then analyzed through a MATLAB program to suggest reforms, modifications, and addenda to policies on the evacuation and return of affected residents. Results indicated that return policies can be modified so residents can return two weeks before or after the recommended time, which was determined to be three months after initial ignition.